October 7, 2003

THE REMAKING OF A MAYOR

By James Eugene*

It has begun. Mayor Billionaire has begun his re-election campaign and is working on changing his image. You can see the articles beginning in the papers that like Mayor Billionaire (about all of the mainstream media). You can see it in his visits to various locations throughout the City - his attempts to pacify groups that he had alienated and ignored for two years. I think you will soon be able to see advertisements touting Mayor Billionaire in the middle of next year, over a year before the election.

"Advertising so early," you say. Well remember, Mayor Billionaire is, obviously, a billionaire. It is not like spending hundreds of millions on a re-election really drains his wallet. He can afford to do a media campaign, both free and otherwise. He will look warm and fuzzy. You will see the nice wide Mayor Billionaire smiley face. You will see him walking with seniors, talking to children, maybe even, gasp, kissing a baby.

The message will be about how Mayor Billionaire kept the City going. How he kept fighting crime and improving education for us. How he funded senior centers and youth centers. Blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda.

It is all so predictable. So how will the Democrats counter? First, the candidates will bring up the tax increases. Then they will bring up the firehouse closings. Next, they will discuss the city employee layoffs and the reduced garbage pick-ups. Very predictable stuff.

And how will Mayor Billionaire respond? He made the tough choices, did the things he had to do, kept the damage to a minimum and kept the City together. And put in the Mayor's shoes, what would any Democrat do?

And then the campaign will begin.

It is this predictability that confuses me. In the end, Mayor Billionaire is right, there is not a single Democrat that would have done things much differently, except maybe raise taxes higher, which currently is the Mayor's single greatest weakness (so no Democrat in the race would pull a Mondale and say that he would raise taxes if elected).

Democrats may try to link Mayor Billionaire with Pataki, a vulnerable man himself. But this will inevitably fail because it is rare when a known figure can be so easily linked with another and be judged on that other, rather than himself.

Basically, I do not think that the Democrats will win on the issues. And Mayor Billionaire is going to focus on the issues. That's what he likes, and that is where he is least vulnerable to attack. If the Democrats are dumb that is where they will attack.

But that does not make Mayor Billionaire a winner. In fact, certain politicians can be considered favorites in an election against him. That's because New York City is the home of ethnic politics.

A winnable Democratic candidate is not white (sorry Gifford Miller). A minority candidate that can inspire a base is more likely to win than a white. Thus, we can start with the fact that a Latin or African American candidate may make the most sense to beat the billionaire.

African Americans in this City traditionally vote Democratic and they will vote solid numbers for a Democrat, especially a minority Democrat. However, it is the Latin voters that are most fickle among minority voting blocs. They have voted in strong numbers for Republicans in the past. Moreover, their leaders have crossed party lines and endorsed Republicans such as Pataki and Giuliani, if they felt there was something in it for them.

They will not do so if the candidate is Latino (hello Adolfo Carrion, welcome back Freddie Ferrer). Thus, a Latino candidate would be more unifying than an African American candidate, and more likely to defeat the Mayor. However, African Americans vote more in primaries (are you listening Bill Thompson and Virginia Fields) and thus, the final Democratic mayoral candidate might not be a Latino.

Now, you are saying, this is a very racist discussion. But ethnic politics has always existed in New York City. Jews have voted for Jews, African Americans for African Americans, Latinos for Latinos, Irish for Irish and Italian for Italian. It is just that the demographics of the City have changed to allow for more non-white voters that this discussion takes place along African American/Latin lines. So welcome to reality.

And there is no way for Mayor Billionaire to draw the people to him on his campaign. His campaign has no grass roots ability. And his actions over the past few years have been cold and distant. People can't even real give money to his campaign and that hurts when the little guy can't "invest" in a campaign. A campaign lacks passion when it solely relies on the billionaire's money. You can be that the person who gives $25 to a campaign is also more willing to distribute literature and make phone calls.

When Mayor Billionaire asks his opponent what he would have done differently with respect to tax increases and fire houses, and his opponent gives a vague answer, that vague answer will not hurt a minority candidate. His ethno-passionate voting bloc will simply think, "my guy would have found a way." And the minority candidate will be a large group's "my guy". Mayor Billionaire has no way of making himself a group's "my guy." And no amount of remaking can change that.

IRAQ/IROLL

I have been somewhat outspoken about my criticism of the Bush Administration because I do not trust them. However, I must confess to agreeing with its aid package. Iraq needs to be rebuilt (we broke it, we fix it, as Tom Friedman says) and $87 billion is not probably far off in terms of the cost.

Of course, I want contracts competitively bid.

Of course, I want full accountability of the money.

Of course, I want a further disclosure on the percentage of this "downpayment"... I mean is there anything else lurking after $87 billion.

Of course, I want to know how we intend on paying for it.

Of course, I want to know how the current funds are presently being spent and how well they are being managed.

Of course, I want a frank assessment on whether there are, in fact, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Of course, I want to know who misplanned the Iraq mess and I want to know that they are not the ones engaging in the current planning, because if I could not trust them in the past and because they were wrong, why should I trust them now. These misfits should be fired.

Of course, I want to know what the ultimate exit plan... sort of like a "roadmap to getting out." (And I hope this works out better than the Israel/Palestinian "roadmap to peace.")

Of course, I want to see this all in black and white in unambiguous terms so we can refer back to it again and again in case the Administration starts drifting.

And of course, with this Administration, I doubt we will see any of the above.

* James Eugene is the pseudonym of a veteran of NYC government affairs. Inside The Big Apple will appear exclusively on the Empire Page. If you want to send tips or column ideas to James Eugene, email them to jameseugene@empirepage.com.